Weekly Bitcoin Price Analysis & Forecasts2nd February – 8th February 2026
Following on from last week’s analysis, Bitcoin continued to trade under heavy pressure, with sellers firmly in control across both the lower and higher timeframes. The week was characterised by weak follow-through on relief rallies, persistent rejection at key moving averages, and heightened macro sensitivity as traders positioned ahead of major US economic releases.
Price action remained reactive rather than impulsive, suggesting the market is still in a corrective or distribution phase rather than preparing for an immediate trend reversal. Volatility increased mid-week, aligning with rising macro uncertainty and upcoming high-impact US data.
Hourly Timeframe Analysis (1H)
On the hourly chart, Bitcoin spent most of the week in a bearish structure, printing a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Early attempts to reclaim short-term resistance were consistently rejected near the 1H moving average, reinforcing it as dynamic resistance rather than support.
A notable sell-off occurred mid-week, where price broke below short-term consolidation and accelerated into the low-$60k region before staging a modest relief bounce. This bounce lacked volume conviction and failed to reclaim prior support levels, confirming it as corrective rather than trend-changing.
Key observations on the hourly timeframe:
Strong sell pressure following each push into resistance
Failed reclaim of short-term VWAP / moving averages
Weak bullish response on dips, indicating limited spot demand
Sellers remaining active into every rally attempt
From a short-term perspective, Bitcoin remains vulnerable while price continues to trade below prior intraday support zones. Any upside moves are currently best viewed as corrective rallies unless structure decisively shifts.
Daily Timeframe Analysis (1D)
Zooming out to the daily chart, Bitcoin’s broader structure remains clearly bearish. Price is trading well below the 200-day moving average, which continues to slope downward and act as long-term resistance. The inability to reclaim this level over recent weeks has kept the macro bias firmly to the downside.
The most recent daily candles show strong downside momentum followed by shallow consolidation, a pattern often associated with continuation rather than reversal. While there has been a short-term reaction bounce from recent lows, the move lacks the impulsive characteristics typically required to confirm a trend change.
Key daily takeaways:
Price remains below all major daily moving averages
No confirmed higher low on the daily timeframe
Previous support has now flipped into resistance
Volume expanded on sell-offs, not on bounces
Until Bitcoin can reclaim and hold above key daily resistance levels, the path of least resistance remains lower or sideways, with continued volatility likely.
Macro & Upcoming High-Impact Events
Looking ahead, traders should remain cautious due to several high-impact (red-flag) US economic events scheduled in the coming week, which are likely to influence Bitcoin’s direction:
US Average Hourly Earnings (m/m)
US Non-Farm Employment Change
US Unemployment Rate
US CPI (m/m, y/y)
These releases are particularly important as they directly impact expectations around inflation, interest rates, and Federal Reserve policy. Any upside surprise in inflation or employment strength could reinforce a higher-for-longer rate narrative, increasing downside pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin. Conversely, weaker-than-expected data could provide temporary relief rallies, though structural confirmation would still be required.
Credit: Crypto Craft
Weekly Summary & Outlook
Bitcoin closed the week in a fragile technical position, with both the hourly and daily charts signalling continued bearish risk. While short-term relief bounces are possible, the broader structure remains unchanged, and rallies are likely to be met with supply unless proven otherwise.
Key points to watch going forward:
Reaction around recent daily lows
Ability (or failure) to reclaim key moving averages
Market response to major US macro data releases
Volume behaviour on any upside attempts
For now, patience remains critical. The market continues to favour reactive trading rather than aggressive directional positioning, with macro data likely to dictate short-term volatility into the coming week.
