Weekly Trading Analysis: A Detailed Breakdown of Market Momentum BTC 14th – 20th April 2025
As the crypto markets matured into mid-April, Bitcoin showed significant structural shifts both technically and fundamentally. With a week packed full of institutional closures, macroeconomic events, and sharp intra-session volatility, BTC delivered both false breaks and clean moves across multiple timeframes. A combination of fundamental drivers and key technical confluence zones are shaping current sentiment — and with major data releases and public speeches lined up, traders should stay alert for potential volatility spikes heading into the next weekly cycle.
Hourly Overview:
Monday opened with high volatility, but price managed to find support at the 50 EMA during the afternoon session. This led to a strong move from 84.3k to 86k overnight into Tuesday. During the NY open on Tuesday, BTC was sharply rejected at 86.4k, triggering a selloff that pushed price below the 50 EMA before support was found at the 200 EMA. This created a clear change of character as price swept through the previous lower low.
By Wednesday, price retraced into the Fib golden zone, but rejected around 85.2k — a level that acted as both resistance and support in previous sessions. After another rejection, BTC returned to the 200 EMA. A pullback followed late Wednesday, where a new higher low was formed, marking another change of character.
For the rest of the week, BTC traded in a tight range between 85.5k resistance and 84.3k support. This range-bound action correlated with low volume due to institutional market closures on Friday.
Early Sunday saw BTC break below the range and the 50 EMA, forming a short-term bearish CHOCH. However, price once again held support at the 200 EMA and rebounded strongly, printing two large candles of 1.7% and 0.75% within two hours, ultimately breaking through 85.5k resistance. This move was backed by a notable volume spike. The move coincided with Asian markets reopening and capital flowing into hedge assets like BTC and Gold, following a drop in the US dollar. Gold also broke into new all-time highs during the same period.
Daily Overview:
On the daily timeframe, BTC finally broke above the descending trendline that’s been in play since December. Throughout the week, BTC struggled to break above both the 50 and 200 EMAs and out of its current area of interest. Sunday’s breakout pushed price above both EMAs and beyond the range, but for full bullish confirmation, BTC needs to close above the last swing high at 88.7k.
This breakout also resulted in the first bullish change of character on the daily since September — a significant structural signal that points toward renewed bullish momentum if follow-through continues.
Key Levels to Watch This Week:
Support Confluence Zone: 85.3k – 86.5k
(Golden zone, bullish FVG, 50 EMA trailing, key level at 85.5k)Resistance/Breakout Level: 88.7k
(Daily swing high, confirmation for bullish structure)
News Events to Watch:
Monday: Trump speaks
Tuesday: JPow (morning) and Trump (pre-NY close)
Wednesday: JPow, Trump, and CPI starting @ 8:30 AM EST
This week is highly sensitive to macroeconomic events. Volatility is expected to spike and should be treated with extreme caution. Lower position sizes, wider stop-losses, and an ATR-based approach to volatility management are strongly recommended.
