Weekly Trading Analysis: A Detailed Breakdown of Market Momentum – BTC 19th May to 25th May 2025

As we closed out the week of May 19–25, Bitcoin showed remarkable resilience despite geopolitical headlines and a volatile macro backdrop. Price action continues to be dictated by strong trend momentum, with very little evidence of mean reversion. This weekly breakdown covers both the hourly and daily structures, identifying key zones of interest, and offering a forward-looking perspective — particularly with the upcoming Bitcoin Conference just around the corner.

Hourly Analysis
Bitcoin kicked off the week by forming a double bottom reversal pattern early on Monday (May 19). This formation around the $106K region set the tone for bullish continuation as it confirmed a strong support base. The confirmation candle closed above prior short-term resistance, suggesting renewed buyer strength.

Throughout the week, BTC respected the 50 EMA on the 1-hour timeframe as dynamic support. This trendline, closely hugging price from May 19 through to late Thursday, guided the market upward and helped support a breakout move.

On Thursday, May 22, Bitcoin printed a new All-Time High (ATH), piercing above $111K and confirming the bullish sentiment.

The bullish momentum came to a halt on Friday, May 23, when news broke that former President Trump would reissue tariffs on European nations. This caused a sharp sell-off, invalidating the prior breakout and dragging price back down toward the $107K range. The psychological impact of macroeconomic headlines reminded traders just how sensitive BTC remains to external catalysts.

After the dump, the 200 EMA stepped in as support while the 50 EMA flipped into resistance, capping multiple bullish attempts and confirming a bearish short-term structure ranged in this setup through the weekend, unable to reclaim the 50 EMA as sellers maintained pressure.

Everything changed at 6 PM Sunday when Trump announced a temporary freeze on the tariffs. This announcement sparked immediate bullish momentum, with Bitcoin rallying back above the 50 EMA, re-flipping short-term structure to bullish and reclaiming lost territory from Friday’s drop. Volume ticked higher, validating the move and setting the stage for another potential leg up.

Daily Analysis

From a daily perspective, the chart is nothing short of textbook bullish. The steep uptrend remains intact, characterized by:

• Multiple Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) being formed and respected

• Rising EMAs (both 20 and 50-day) still trailing significantly below price

• No sign yet of a meaningful mean reversion, though the gap is becoming increasingly extended

Friday’s candle, despite a wide wick down, closed strong — showcasing bullish absorption. The daily FVG from earlier in the week held firm, and price printed a near bullish engulfing over the weekend.

The $108K–$110K level continues to act as a magnet, and if price can sustain above $110.2K on increasing volume, a new leg toward $112K–$114K could initiate quickly.

However, aggressive traders should also be aware that the higher we drift without a corrective pullback, the more violent the reversion could be when it does arrive. Daily support levels remain untested from the $102K and $98K regions, where larger players may be waiting to reload.

Summary

In summary, Bitcoin continues to defy gravity, trading firmly within a bullish structure on both hourly and daily timeframes. Short-term pullbacks have all been shallow and swiftly bought up, with FVGs consistently respected — a sign of strong underlying demand.

However, it’s important to keep the stretched nature of the EMAs in view — while momentum is bullish, a clean mean reversion is still due, and may catch late longs off guard.

Looking ahead, all eyes turn to the upcoming Bitcoin 2025 Conference, set to begin next week. Historically, major conferences tend to coincide with volatile price swings and high speculation. Whether this serves as a catalyst for a breakout or a profit-taking event remains to be seen — but one thing is certain: volatility is likely to increase.

Stay nimble, protect profits, and keep watch for signals from both price and volume going into this event-driven week.