Weekly Trading Analysis: A Detailed Breakdown of Market MomentumBTC 17th November – 23rd November 2025
Bitcoin’s slide deepened this week as the market continued to grapple with the aftermath of aggressive U.S. macro data and ongoing risk aversion across global markets. Price dropped as low as $85K before finding temporary support, closing the week near $86.3K.
The decline marks a continuation of the multi-week downtrend that began after the sharp selloff triggered by Trump’s tariff announcement on Chinese imports earlier this month. The move intensified risk-off sentiment, pressuring both equities and crypto assets. Despite short-lived intraday recoveries, BTC remains trapped beneath critical resistance levels, reflecting ongoing weakness in speculative appetite.
Hourly Analysis
On the 1-hour chart, BTC displayed a mixed structure with heavy volatility but little directional follow-through. Early in the week, the price extended its downtrend, setting a new local low near $85.5K before rebounding sharply. This bounce was supported by an uptick in buy volume, suggesting the presence of short-term dip buyers defending the region.
As the week progressed, Bitcoin managed to reclaim the 50 EMA but continued to struggle below the 200 EMA, which remained downward sloping. This dynamic has consistently acted as resistance, capping all bullish attempts. The market is now consolidating above the $85.4K–$86K support zone, forming a fragile base that traders will watch closely for potential breakdowns or reversals.
Short-term momentum appears to be stabilizing, but there’s little evidence yet of a broader trend reversal. If BTC fails to maintain above the support zone, a retest of $83K–$84K remains on the table. Conversely, a clean hourly close above $87.5K could open the door for a move back toward $89K.
Daily Analysis
The daily chart reinforces the broader bearish outlook. After several consecutive weeks of decline, BTC printed a small relief candle as selling pressure eased slightly. However, both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs remain significantly above price, underscoring the strength of the existing downtrend.
Volume analysis shows that the most recent bounce lacked conviction — while selling volume earlier in the month spiked dramatically during the tariff-driven crash, buying volume this week was notably lighter. This imbalance suggests that the rebound may simply be corrective in nature.
Despite this, the appearance of a possible hammer-like candle at the weekly low hints that sellers may be losing steam. For bulls, the next few sessions are critical — maintaining closes above $85K could allow BTC to form a temporary base. On the other hand, any daily close below that level could accelerate downside momentum, potentially driving prices toward $82K or even $80K.
Summary & Upcoming Events
Looking forward, traders should brace for another event-heavy week, as outlined by the CryptoCraft calendar. Several high-impact red events are set to influence risk sentiment and potentially drive volatility in BTC and broader markets:
Wednesday, Nov 26 – US PPI m/m & Core PPI m/m: A key gauge of inflationary pressure on producers. A higher-than-expected reading could reignite fears of sticky inflation, pushing yields higher and weighing on crypto.
Thursday, Nov 27 – US Prelim GDP q/q: GDP strength could reinforce expectations that the Fed will maintain tight policy, further constraining risk assets.
Thursday, Nov 27 – US Core PCE Price Index m/m: The Fed’s preferred inflation measure. Any upside surprise here would likely result in additional downside pressure on Bitcoin.
Friday, Nov 28 – US Ge Preliminary CPI m/m: While lower-tier, this reading will confirm or refute the inflation trajectory, influencing late-week positioning.
Saturday, Nov 29 – US Bitcoin Futures Expiration: Always a critical date for BTC volatility. Futures expiry often leads to increased price swings as traders rebalance positions.
In summary, Bitcoin’s downtrend remains intact, but price action suggests that the worst of the recent capitulation may be behind us — at least temporarily. However, with inflation and GDP data on deck, traders should expect elevated volatility and potential liquidity squeezes heading into month-end. Maintaining discipline and focusing on key structural levels around $85K and $89K will be crucial for navigating the coming week.
Credit: Crypto Craft
