Daily Trading Analysis: A Detailed Breakdown of Market Momentum BTC 3rd & 4th April 2025
Following the volatility that ensued after major news events on the 2nd of April, Bitcoin entered the 3rd with a bearish tone across the lower timeframes. The fear index spiked to levels of extreme fear, and market participants were left navigating an environment marked by unpredictability and uncertainty. From geopolitical tensions to stock market weakness, the correlation between traditional assets and BTC began to shift, giving traders potential insight into Bitcoin's evolving role as a macro hedge.
30-Minute Chart Analysis
The 30-minute chart reflected a market in freefall during the pre-market session on the 3rd, breaking below the ascending trendline that had served as a structural base on the lower timeframes. This breakdown came shortly after a rejection at the 83.6k resistance level, which confirmed the bearish sentiment.
Just before the U.S. market opened, BTC managed to find a short-term support level. The open brought a quick bullish attempt; however, the move was short-lived as price failed to close above the newly formed resistance at 82.3k. A long upper rejection wick on the opening candle reinforced the bearish control and pushed price back down.
For the remainder of the trading session, Bitcoin remained trapped in a tight range between 82.3k (resistance) and 81.6k (support). This range-bound activity suggested consolidation amidst broader uncertainty. But the real surprise came after market close.
BTC staged a strong rally, reclaiming the daily ascending trendline and pushing above both the 50 and 200 EMAs on the 30-minute chart—typically a bullish signal. The rally, however, was met with strong resistance at 84.6k, coinciding with macroeconomic news that impacted broader risk sentiment. Notably, China’s announcement of heavy tariffs on U.S. goods sent projections of S&P weakness across financial media, triggering a selloff in futures markets.
BTC responded almost instantly, plummeting from 84.6k to 81.6k in pre-market—a sharp 3.58% dip in just 90 minutes. When the market opened, the stock market began reacting to the news, but Bitcoin appeared to decouple, moving independently and even rebounding slightly, suggesting a potential shift in perception toward BTC as a safe-haven asset during economic turbulence.
Price eventually climbed back toward 84.6k but has since entered a short consolidation phase. Importantly, BTC remains above the 200 EMA on the 30-minute chart, an area that may serve as dynamic support moving forward.
Still, lower timeframe traders should exercise extreme caution here. The combination of heightened volatility and macro uncertainty calls for reduced position sizes and wider stop losses to mitigate whipsaws and erratic price action.
Daily Chart Analysis
The daily chart tells a similar yet broader story of conflict and compression. Large upper and lower wicks dominate recent candles, signaling indecision and reinforcing the narrative of violent intraday swings. These wicks are paired with a noticeable uptick in volume—now significantly higher than the previous two weeks—suggesting that institutional interest or major repositioning is underway.
From a structural standpoint, the ascending trendline is still being respected. The recent rally and retracement have kept price within a broader wedge formation formed by the intersection of an ascending and a descending trendline. This wedge is now nearing its apex, implying that a breakout—either to the upside or downside—is imminent.
Given the increased volume and macro pressure, the breakout from this wedge could be explosive and provide directional clarity not just for the next few sessions, but possibly the coming weeks.
Traders should be watching closely for a daily candle close outside this wedge formation. If it breaks upward, it could invalidate the short-term bearish structure and invite momentum buyers. A break to the downside, however, especially with follow-through volume, could trigger panic selling as traders exit long positions en masse.
Summary
The price action between April 3rd and 4th has painted a clear picture of uncertainty, volatility, and shifting correlations. From breaking key lower timeframe support to staging a powerful post-close rally and then crashing again on pre-market macro news, Bitcoin is acting less like a risk asset and more like a speculative hedge.
Despite this choppy environment, a few things are clear:
82.3k and 81.6k remain pivotal intraday levels.
The wedge on the daily timeframe is nearing a critical point.
Volume is surging, suggesting a big move is brewing.
Bitcoin is showcasing potential decorrelation from equities, which could redefine its narrative going forward.
For traders, now is not the time for aggression—it's the time for preparation. Smaller sizes, smarter stops, and a watchful eye on daily structure will be key to navigating the next major move.
