Weekend Trading Analysis: A Detailed Breakdown of Market Momentum BTC 5th & 6th April 2025
As the weekend unfolded, Bitcoin entered with a continuation of the bearish sentiment that developed toward the backend of Friday’s New York session. Traders were navigating a landscape dominated by geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. With futures markets flashing red across the board—particularly in Asia—Bitcoin once again found itself reacting sharply to global cues, further emphasizing its evolving correlation with traditional markets.
30-Minute Chart Analysis
During the latter half of Friday’s session, BTC formed a clear downtrend on the 30-minute chart, printing lower highs and lower lows beneath a newly validated descending trendline. This shift in structure set the tone heading into the weekend, and early Saturday saw an aggressive sell-off that brought price tumbling back to the key 82k level.
At this level, BTC found immediate demand and staged a rebound, reclaiming both the 50 and 200 EMAs. However, this bounce failed to translate into a true structural reversal. Price rejected at 83.6k—resistance from earlier in the week—and was unable to break structure by forming a new higher high. While more experienced traders may have anticipated this as a bearish continuation, less experienced market participants likely saw the EMA reclaim and trendline break as bullish signals, leading to potential long traps.
Price resumed its downward momentum shortly after, again breaking below both EMAs, with the previously broken trendline now acting as dynamic resistance. This move set the stage for a major reaction to fresh macroeconomic data.
The catalyst came in the form of futures data from China, where the stock market saw a staggering 9% sell-off. BTC mirrored this sentiment, plunging 9.8% over the next 15 hours, perfectly aligning with the Asian market downturn. As of this writing, ES futures (S&P 500) are down 3.61%, and fears are mounting that U.S. markets may open with a heavy risk-off tone—potentially dragging BTC further down. Historically, during uncertain environments, risk assets like crypto often get hit harder than traditional equities, and this trend appears to be repeating itself.
Daily Chart Analysis
On the daily chart, Bitcoin has officially broken out of the wedge formation that had been compressing price over the last several days. The breakout occurred with clear momentum—something that would’ve been cleanly tradable on the 4-hour timeframe.
Price is now fast approaching a historically significant level—one that acted as a major rejection point during last year’s bull market. Back then, failure to break through this zone resulted in a sharp retracement. When it finally broke out, BTC surged straight to 108k. That history now makes this a highly pivotal support area.
However, despite the technical significance of this level, broader macro conditions can’t be ignored. Until there is a material shift in global sentiment—particularly surrounding rate expectations, economic outlooks, or major geopolitical headlines—it’s hard to justify long-term bullish positions. Any bounce from here should be treated cautiously unless accompanied by a fundamental improvement in risk appetite.
Summary
The weekend price action for BTC has been a masterclass in how macro forces increasingly impact digital assets. From trendline breakdowns to reactive sell-offs following Chinese market data, the volatility has been intense and unforgiving.
Key takeaways:
BTC continued its bearish market structure from Friday
The 83.6k level remains a strong resistance
A 9.8% drop mirrored Chinese markets amid global fear
Price is nearing a key historical support level from 2024
Macro conditions still point toward risk-off sentiment
Until the storm settles, traders are best advised to remain cautious, reduce risk, and wait for true confirmation—both technically and fundamentally—before positioning aggressively.
