Weekly Bitcoin Price Analysis & Forecast9th February – 15th February 2026
Following last week’s sharp selloff, Bitcoin spent the 9th–15th February period attempting to stabilise after a sustained macro-driven risk-off move. Price action remained technically weak, with rallies being sold into rather than forming any meaningful reversal structure.
This week was characterised less by impulsive downside and more by controlled distribution — a typical mid-cycle correction behaviour where liquidity dries up, volatility compresses, and market participants reassess macro signals before committing to directional exposure.
Hourly Analysis
On the 1-hour timeframe, Bitcoin remained structurally bearish despite several short-lived relief bounces.
Key observations:
Price continued printing lower highs, confirming sellers remain in control.
The short-term moving average (purple) acted as dynamic resistance, rejecting multiple recovery attempts.
Any upside momentum quickly failed once price tagged intraday supply zones.
Volume profiles showed declining participation, indicating lack of conviction from buyers.
Late-week price action transitioned into sideways compression, suggesting accumulation was not yet present — rather, a pause in selling pressure.
The hourly structure reflects a market that is not yet ready to reverse, but is also no longer in panic mode. This type of behaviour often precedes either:
A continuation breakdown once liquidity returns, or
A reclaim of key resistance that forces short covering.
At present, neither has occurred.
Daily Analysis
The daily timeframe continues to show the broader correction that began earlier in the year.
Important technical developments:
Bitcoin remains firmly below the major moving average (yellow), signalling sustained macro weakness.
The rally attempts during the week failed to break prior daily resistance, reinforcing a bearish market structure.
The recent impulse leg down created a clear trend continuation pattern, not a capitulation bottom.
Daily candles showed smaller bodies and reduced volatility — a classic sign of post-liquidation digestion rather than recovery.
No bullish market structure shift has formed; the sequence of lower highs remains intact.
Until Bitcoin can reclaim the major trend average and hold above it, this remains technically a corrective phase inside the longer-term cycle rather than a fresh bullish leg.
Macro & News Catalysts to Watch (High-Impact Events)
From the CryptoCraft calendar, the market is watching several red-folder events that could drive volatility:
US Core Durable Goods Orders
US Durable Goods Orders
US Trade Balance
US Core PCE Price Index (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge)
US Advance GDP q/q
US Personal Income & Spending Data
These releases matter because:
Inflation and consumption data directly influence Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Strong data could delay rate cuts → negative for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Weak data could revive liquidity expectations → supportive for crypto rebounds.
GDP and spending figures will shape broader risk sentiment across global markets.
Bitcoin is currently trading as a macro-sensitive asset, meaning these releases may act as the next directional catalyst rather than crypto-native developments.
Credit: Crypto Craft
Summary
Bitcoin spent the week of 9th–15th February 2026 consolidating after its aggressive decline, but the market has not yet demonstrated the strength required for a structural reversal.
Hourly trend: Bearish consolidation with repeated rejection at dynamic resistance.
Daily trend: Still corrective, with no confirmed bottoming structure.
Momentum: Weak recoveries suggest sellers remain dominant.
Macro focus: Upcoming US inflation and growth data likely to dictate the next major move.
For now, Bitcoin appears to be in a transitional phase — not collapsing, but not rebuilding either. The next directional expansion will likely come from macro confirmation rather than purely technical triggers..
