Weekly Bitcoin Price Analysis & Forecasts 16th February – 22nd February 2026

Bitcoin continued to consolidate throughout the week of 16th–22nd February 2026, with price action reflecting a market still digesting the sharp sell-off seen earlier in the month. Rather than an immediate rebound, BTC has entered a stabilisation phase, characterised by choppy intraday movement, fading rallies, and cautious participation from both buyers and sellers. With limited high-impact macroeconomic catalysts during the week, price behaviour has been largely technical, as the market attempts to establish a short-term base while awaiting clearer direction from upcoming inflation data and broader liquidity signals.

Hourly Chart Analysis

Following on from last week’s analysis, Bitcoin continued to struggle to establish sustained bullish momentum, with the hourly structure showing a clear pattern of lower highs and reactive bounces rather than impulsive reversals.

Key observations from the 1-hour timeframe:

• Price remains capped beneath both the short-term and mid-term moving averages, which continue to slope downward — signalling persistent short-term bearish control.

• The sharp sell-off earlier in February has transitioned into a sideways-to-distribution phase, not accumulation.

• Buyers have repeatedly defended the mid-$60,000 region, but rallies into the $68,000–$69,000 zone are being sold into quickly.

• This behaviour is typical of a market digesting macro-driven downside rather than preparing for an immediate trend reversal.

In short, the hourly chart reflects a market attempting to stabilise after liquidation-driven moves, but without the structure that would suggest strong institutional re-entry just yet.

Daily Chart Analysis

Zooming out to the daily timeframe reinforces the broader narrative we’ve been tracking over recent weeks — Bitcoin remains in a corrective phase within the larger cycle.

Important developments on the daily chart:

• The market has failed to reclaim key daily resistance, forming another lower high after the late-January bounce.

• The longer-term moving average region continues to drift lower, acting as dynamic resistance rather than support — a notable shift from the strength seen in late 2025.

• The February sell-off reset positioning aggressively, and price is now attempting to base rather than trend.

• Structurally, this resembles a mid-cycle reset, where leverage is flushed before any attempt at continuation later in the year.

Despite the weakness, the macro higher-timeframe structure is not yet broken — this still looks like a correction unless deeper support levels fail decisively.

Macro & News Drivers (CryptoCraft Calendar)

This week’s CryptoCraft calendar shows very limited high-impact (red) events, reinforcing the price behaviour we’ve seen — a technically driven market rather than one reacting to major macro catalysts.

Key Red Events to Watch:

• US Core PPI m/m

• US PPI m/m

These inflation-linked producer price metrics matter because they:

• Influence expectations around the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

• Directly impact liquidity conditions — the single biggest driver of crypto performance.

• Can quickly shift risk appetite if inflation surprises to the upside again.

With fewer macro shocks scheduled, markets may remain range-bound and technically driven, allowing Bitcoin to continue forming a base rather than reacting violently.

Credit: Crypto Craft

Weekly Outlook & Summary

Bitcoin is currently transitioning through a classic market cycle phase:

Impulsive Sell-Off → Stabilisation Phase → Awaiting Macro Catalyst

This is not yet a recovery environment — it’s a digestion period.

What We’re Watching Now:

• Whether BTC can build acceptance above the mid-$60K region.

• If rallies continue to be sold (a bearish continuation signal).

• Signs of reclaiming daily resistance — the first signal of trend repair.

• Reaction to upcoming US inflation data, which could inject volatility back into the market.

Market Character Right Now:

• Lower volatility following liquidation-driven moves

• Macro-sensitive positioning

• No strong trend — rotational behaviour dominating

• Traders active, longer-term investors waiting for confirmation

Final Thoughts

The February weakness has not invalidated the broader cycle, but it has clearly shifted Bitcoin into a cooling phase after the strong late-2025 rally. Markets rarely move vertically for long — this period is shaping up as the reset needed before the next sustained move.

Patience remains key here. This is the kind of environment where structure matters far more than headlines.