Weekly Bitcoin Price Analysis & Forecasts: 19th January – 25th January 2025
Following on from last week’s consolidation phase, Bitcoin entered this period with increased volatility and a clear reaction to macro-driven uncertainty. Price struggled to hold recent highs and saw renewed selling pressure as markets responded to rising geopolitical and monetary policy risk. With traders becoming increasingly sensitive to upcoming central bank decisions, Bitcoin spent much of the week attempting to stabilise above key support levels while failing to regain strong bullish momentum.
Hourly Timeframe Analysis
On the hourly timeframe, Bitcoin initially attempted to build a base above the previous support zone but was met with heavy selling pressure early in the week. Price broke down through short-term structure, confirming bearish momentum as the 50 EMA rolled over and began acting as dynamic resistance.
A sharp impulsive move lower created a new short-term low, followed by a brief relief rally that failed to reclaim prior highs. This suggests that buyers were reactive rather than proactive, stepping in only after price had already fallen significantly.
Throughout the remainder of the week, Bitcoin traded in a weak range, with lower highs forming against descending resistance. This structure reflects uncertainty and risk-off behaviour, likely driven by macro headlines and anticipation of key U.S. economic releases. The failure to hold above prior intraday support highlights that sellers remained in control on lower timeframes.
Daily Timeframe Analysis
From a daily perspective, Bitcoin remains in a corrective phase following the sharp decline seen earlier in the month. Price attempted a recovery toward the declining 50-day moving average but was rejected, confirming this level as a major resistance zone.
The recent daily candles show long wicks on both sides, indicating indecision and aggressive two-way trading. While buyers were able to defend the lower support area, they were unable to generate enough momentum to reclaim previous breakdown levels.
Structure remains technically bearish on the daily timeframe, with price still trading below key moving averages and below prior market structure highs. Until Bitcoin can establish acceptance back above resistance and hold higher lows, the broader trend remains vulnerable to further downside or prolonged consolidation.
Summary and Outlook
Bitcoin closed the week in a fragile position, with short-term structure remaining weak and higher-timeframe momentum still pointing toward consolidation rather than expansion. Traders should remain cautious as macroeconomic catalysts dominate sentiment.
Looking ahead, several high-impact red-flag events from the economic calendar may influence Bitcoin volatility:
U.S. Federal Funds Rate decision
FOMC Statement
FOMC Press Conference
U.S. Core PPI and PPI releases
These events will be critical in shaping expectations around interest rate policy and liquidity conditions. Any surprise hawkish tone could weigh further on risk assets, while dovish commentary may provide temporary relief.
Until clearer direction emerges, Bitcoin is likely to remain reactive to macro news rather than purely technical drivers. Traders should closely monitor key resistance zones and watch for either a structural reclaim to the upside or a continuation of lower highs signalling renewed downside pressure.
Credit: Crypto Craft
