Weekly Bitcoin Price Analysis & Forecasts: 12th January – 18th January 2025

Following on from last week’s consolidation and early signs of recovery, Bitcoin experienced a renewed bout of volatility this week, driven largely by macro-economic headlines rather than technical weakness alone. After briefly pushing higher, BTC saw a sharp intraday pullback as markets reacted to renewed geopolitical tensions, with the United States announcing tariff measures against the EU tied to the ongoing Greenland trade dispute.

Despite the headline-driven sell-off, price action remains structurally constructive on higher timeframes, with Bitcoin continuing to defend key support zones and holding above major moving averages. This week’s analysis breaks down how that volatility played out on the hourly timeframe, before stepping back to assess the daily structure and broader trend context.

Hourly Timeframe Analysis (1H)

On the hourly chart, Bitcoin initially attempted to build on last week’s momentum, grinding higher and holding above short-term support. However, sentiment shifted quickly following the US tariff announcement, triggering a sharp impulsive sell-off that flushed late longs and swept liquidity below recent intraday lows.

This move resulted in:

• A clean rejection from the upper intraday range

• A fast move back into the prior value area

• Increased volume during the sell-off, signalling event-driven participation rather than organic trend weakness

Price has since stabilised and begun to form a short-term base, suggesting the move was more of a headline-driven correction than the start of a sustained bearish trend. Importantly, buyers stepped back in quickly, preventing a deeper breakdown and keeping BTC within its broader consolidation structure.

From a technical perspective, the hourly chart continues to show:

• Strong responsiveness around key intraday support

• Compression following the volatility spike

• A market waiting for fresh macro direction before committing

As long as price continues to hold above recent swing lows, the hourly structure remains neutral-to-constructive, with scope for renewed upside attempts once volatility cools.

Daily Timeframe Analysis (1D)

Zooming out to the daily chart, the broader picture remains relatively unchanged despite the short-term volatility. Bitcoin continues to trade within a wider corrective structure that began after the prior impulsive sell-off, with price respecting key daily levels and failing to break down meaningfully.

The recent pullback aligns closely with:

• A reaction from the declining daily moving averages

• A natural retracement following the prior bounce

• Macro uncertainty rather than technical invalidation

Crucially, BTC has not lost its higher-timeframe support, and daily closes remain well above the extreme lows printed during the previous capitulation phase. This suggests the market is still in a rebuilding phase, rather than transitioning into a fresh bearish expansion.

For now, the daily chart supports the view that Bitcoin is digesting recent moves, with traders awaiting clarity from upcoming macro data before committing to the next directional leg.

Weekly Outlook & Key Events Ahead

Looking ahead, macroeconomic data will remain the primary driver of volatility, particularly as markets assess inflation, labour strength, and central bank direction.

From the upcoming high-impact (red) events on the economic calendar, traders should keep a close eye on:

• US CPI (m/m & y/y) – A key inflation read that could influence rate expectations and risk appetite

• US Core PPI (m/m) – Offering insight into upstream inflation pressures

• US Core PCE Price Index (m/m) – The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric

• US Final GDP (q/q) – Providing confirmation on growth momentum

These releases have the potential to inject significant volatility into Bitcoin, particularly if inflation data deviates meaningfully from expectations.

Credit: Crypto Craft

Summary

Bitcoin’s price action this week was largely shaped by macro headlines, with the US-EU tariff announcement triggering a sharp but contained pullback. While the hourly chart reflected elevated volatility and liquidity sweeps, the daily structure remains intact, suggesting this move was corrective rather than trend-defining.

As we move into the coming week, traders should remain patient and risk-aware, with key US inflation data likely to dictate short-term direction. Until a decisive breakout or breakdown occurs, Bitcoin appears content consolidating within its broader range, setting the stage for the next meaningful move once macro uncertainty clears.