Weekly Bitcoin Price Analysis & Forecasts29th December – 4th January 2025

Following on from last week’s holiday-impacted consolidation, Bitcoin began the final days of December and the opening of the new year with a noticeable shift in momentum. With liquidity returning to the market post-Christmas, price action became more directional, allowing key technical levels to be tested and respected. While broader macro conditions remain uncertain, Bitcoin showed early signs of strength as buyers stepped back in ahead of an important data-heavy week.

This analysis breaks down the key developments across the hourly and daily timeframes, before outlining the major upcoming macro events that could influence price action going forward.

Hourly Timeframe Analysis

On the hourly timeframe, Bitcoin displayed a clear change in structure compared to the previous week. Price began the week consolidating above short-term support before building higher lows, indicating steady demand returning into the market.

A key observation on the hourly chart is the clear support and resistance structure forming between 87k and 90k. The 87k region has acted as a well-defined demand zone, with multiple rejections and strong reactions whenever price traded into this area. Buyers consistently defended this level, preventing further downside continuation.

On the upside, 90k acted as a pivotal resistance zone, capping price on multiple occasions. Toward the latter part of the week, Bitcoin began compressing beneath this resistance, forming a tighter range and indicating a potential buildup of liquidity. This compression ultimately led to a breakout attempt as momentum increased into the end of the week.

Price also reclaimed and held above the short-term moving averages, reinforcing the bullish intraday bias. As long as Bitcoin continues to hold above the 87k support zone, the hourly structure remains constructive, with further upside possible if 90k can be decisively broken and held.

Daily Timeframe Analysis

From a daily perspective, Bitcoin remains in a broader corrective structure following the sharp sell-off seen earlier in December. However, this week marked an important stabilization phase.

Price continues to trade below the daily 200 EMA, which remains a key level to reclaim for sustained bullish continuation. That said, the recent daily candles show reduced selling pressure and improving structure, with higher lows beginning to form after the December capitulation move.

The 93k level stands out as a major daily resistance zone, as highlighted by previous reactions and structural highs. A clean daily close above this level would significantly improve the higher-timeframe outlook and open the door for a broader trend reversal.

Volume on the daily chart has begun to normalize following the holiday period, suggesting that participation is slowly returning to the market. While Bitcoin is not yet in a confirmed bullish trend on the daily timeframe, the current structure supports a cautiously optimistic outlook provided key levels continue to hold.

Summary & Upcoming Market Events

Bitcoin closes the week showing early signs of strength, with the market transitioning from holiday-driven low liquidity into a more active trading environment. The 87k support zone remains critical, while 90k and 93k act as major resistance levels to watch in the coming sessions.

Looking ahead, attention shifts to several high-impact red-flag macro events that could inject volatility back into the market. The upcoming week includes key US labour market data, notably Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings, all of which have the potential to influence risk sentiment across global markets. Any surprise in these releases could directly impact Bitcoin’s short-term direction.

With liquidity returning and macro catalysts approaching, traders should expect increased volatility and remain disciplined with risk management. As always, patience around key levels will be essential as the market reveals its next directional move.

Wishing everyone a strong start to the new year, and as always, trade safe.

Credit: Crypto Craft