Weekly Trading Analysis: A Detailed Breakdown of Market Momentum
This week, Bitcoin's price action was heavily influenced by macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tension. Price movements reflected investor fear, with risk assets such as crypto reacting more sharply than traditional equities. Here's a breakdown of BTC’s movement on both the hourly and daily charts for the week.
Hourly Analysis
The week began with BTC making an attempt to retest the highs near $110,000 on Monday, but instead found resistance at $109K. This could be seen as a liquidity sweep by larger players, possibly manipulating bullish sentiment to build exit liquidity in anticipation of a volatile, macro-driven week.
Following this move, price steadily sold off throughout the week, failing to reclaim the 50 EMA and showing consistent weakness. On Friday morning, BTC made a brief rally attempt but was rejected at the 200 EMA — reinforcing bearish control.
While the stock market held up comparatively well, crypto’s reaction was notably more pessimistic, possibly due to its sensitivity to risk-off sentiment. The divergence in performance reflects how investors may be pulling out of higher-risk assets in anticipation of global conflict escalation.
On Sunday morning, BTC dropped significantly below $100K, driven by anxiety around the U.S. bombing of facilities over the weekend. However, upon the 6 PM futures market open, price sharply reversed, reclaiming the $100K level and showing a bounce in sentiment. That said, the 50 EMA continues to act as resistance.
Daily Analysis
On the daily chart, BTC broke back below the 50 EMA and confirmed a bearish break of structure with a new lower low — a sign of returning bearish market structure.
Though price remains above the 200 EMA and within a bullish FVG (Fair Value Gap) that has been respected multiple times, the macroeconomic backdrop leans heavily bearish. This suggests short setups remain favorable unless BTC can reclaim and hold above the 50 EMA and invalidate the lower low.
Key Levels
Support: $97K–$100K zone (psychological + FVG confluence)
Resistance: $104.5K–$106K range (50 EMA zone)
Summary
This week’s price action highlights the volatility and unpredictability caused by geopolitical developments. The crypto market reacted with fear, diverging from equities. While there’s short-term support at $100K, market structure leans bearish, especially with macro headlines driving sudden moves.
Trading Caution:
Due to constant news around geopolitical risks, traders should:
Lower leverage
Use wider stop-losses
Monitor macro headlines closely
Until BTC can reclaim the 50 EMA and invalidate the current bearish structure, any rallies should be viewed with caution.
