Weekly Trading Analysis: A Detailed Breakdown of Market Momentum BTC 22nd September – 28th September 2025
This past week in Bitcoin trading was marked by consolidation early on, followed by an explosive upside push, only to meet renewed resistance heading into the weekend. The moves reflected both technical positioning and a market bracing for a heavy week of macroeconomic news. With risk sentiment shifting around global monetary policy expectations, BTC continues to trade in alignment with equity markets while still respecting its key technical zones.
Hourly Analysis
On the hourly timeframe, price action was relatively stable at the start of the week, with Bitcoin ranging around the $111k–$112k zone. Support held near $109k, while resistance continued to cap gains around the $113k level. By midweek, buyers attempted to break higher, with a strong spike pushing BTC above both the 50 EMA and testing the 200 EMA. However, momentum faded, and price returned back into the range, highlighting that larger players may still be distributing positions at higher levels.
Friday saw an uptick in volatility with a quick rally into $112k, but this breakout lacked strong follow-through, suggesting caution heading into the upcoming macroeconomic calendar. Volume spikes confirmed that while liquidity pockets are being tested, conviction remains mixed as traders await clearer signals from upcoming data.
Daily Analysis
On the daily chart, Bitcoin remains in a broader consolidation zone after the steep selloff in August. This week’s price action shows BTC attempting to reclaim higher ground, but the rejection at the mid-range has kept the overall structure fragile. The 200 EMA continues to act as overhead resistance, while the 50 EMA has been tested multiple times and is close to breaking down.
The macro trend is still indecisive — BTC has yet to form a clear higher high that would confirm bullish continuation. Instead, the market appears to be holding a neutral stance, with short-term rallies being faded into supply zones. This week’s candle structure suggests cautious optimism, but the lack of sustained buying pressure makes further downside possible if key support levels fail.
Summary and Outlook
This week’s trading reflected a market waiting for direction. Bitcoin tested both sides of its range but ultimately failed to establish momentum in either direction. Traders are cautious as global macro news is set to dominate price action going forward.
Looking ahead, the upcoming economic calendar is loaded with potential catalysts. Key events include:
US Pending Home Sales (Sep 30) and US Consumer Confidence (Oct 1), both of which may influence risk sentiment.
Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate (Oct 1), crucial for inflation outlook in Europe.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct 2), followed by US Unemployment Claims the same day.
US Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate (Oct 3) — historically one of the most market-moving data releases of the month.
UK BOE Gov Bailey and ECB President Lagarde Speeches (Oct 3), adding further macro weight.
Given this lineup, volatility should pick up significantly. For traders, the best approach is caution — managing risk tightly and expecting rapid intraday swings around these announcements.
BTC remains technically capped by resistance but supported by key levels. If macro data comes in supportive of risk assets, a test of $117k is possible. However, weaker economic signals or hawkish central bank rhetoric could see BTC retest the $109k–$110k support zone.
