Weekly Trading Analysis: A Detailed Breakdown of Market Momentum BTC 29th September – 5th October 2025
Bitcoin closed the first week of October with a strong upward move, breaking out of September’s sluggish consolidation phase. The bullish momentum was largely fueled by a mix of technical reclaim levels and renewed optimism in broader markets as U.S. macro data hinted at a controlled cooling of inflation. BTC managed to hold above $120,000, printing a confident structure that suggests traders may be positioning ahead of high-impact macroeconomic events scheduled for the coming week.
Hourly Analysis
On the 1-hour chart, Bitcoin displayed a consistent uptrend throughout the week. After finding support near the $109,000 zone, price steadily climbed with higher highs and higher lows, a sign of healthy market structure.
The 50 EMA served as dynamic support through much of the rally, while the 200 EMA lagged behind, confirming that shorter-term momentum remained in control. Volume spikes on September 29 and October 3 marked key points of renewed buying interest, particularly as price reclaimed the $120,000 handle.
The consolidation toward the end of the week, around $123,000–$124,000, suggests that the market may be taking a breather before attempting another push higher. If BTC manages to hold this zone, a continuation toward $126,000 or even $130,000 could be on the table in the short term.
Daily Analysis
The daily chart highlights a powerful rebound from late September lows, turning what was previously resistance around $112,000 into strong support. The candle structure shows increasing bullish control, with large-bodied candles and higher daily closes throughout the week.
Volume expansion on October 3 and 4 confirms institutional participation, and the price is now approaching levels not seen since early August. The 50-day EMA has begun to curl upward, hinting at a possible mid-term trend reversal if Bitcoin can sustain above $122,000.
However, the RSI suggests short-term overextension, so a minor retracement or sideways consolidation is possible before any further rally. Maintaining above the $120,000–$121,000 support region will be key for sustaining the bullish outlook heading into the second week of October.
Summary & Upcoming News
Bitcoin’s strength this week came amid a relatively calm macro backdrop, but the upcoming days are loaded with potential catalysts that could bring volatility back to the markets. Based on the CryptoCraft calendar:
Tuesday, October 7: ECB President Lagarde and BOE Governor Bailey are scheduled to speak, potentially influencing global risk sentiment.
Wednesday, October 8: The RBNZ rate statement and NZ official cash rate release could impact the broader FX and commodity markets, indirectly influencing Bitcoin through USD volatility.
Thursday, October 9: The FOMC Meeting Minutes and U.S. Unemployment Claims could significantly shape near-term market direction. Traders will closely monitor Powell’s tone for clues on rate trajectory.
Friday, October 10: The U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate are the week’s headline events. A weaker jobs print could fuel risk-on sentiment, benefiting Bitcoin and equities alike.
Saturday, October 11: Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations could influence weekend trading activity, particularly if inflation expectations surprise to the upside.
Heading into this event-heavy week, Bitcoin traders should remain alert to volatility spikes around these macro data points. A continued hold above $120,000 could cement this recent move as the start of a broader bullish phase, while a sharp rejection from the $125,000 region would signal a short-term top and potential retest of support zones.
Credit: Crypto Craft
