Weekly Trading Analysis: A Detailed Breakdown of Market MomentumBTC 13th October – 19th October 2025
Following last week’s steep decline sparked by the U.S.–China tariff shock, Bitcoin spent much of this week attempting to stabilize. The market opened weak but managed to claw back some losses as traders adjusted to the new geopolitical landscape. Risk appetite returned cautiously, supported by bargain buying around the $107K–$108K range. By week’s end, BTC closed near $111K — marking a modest rebound but still well below pre-selloff levels.
Despite the bounce, sentiment remains fragile. The market continues to digest the macro impact of trade tensions, while upcoming inflation data and central bank commentary keep volatility firmly on the radar.
Hourly Analysis
On the 1-hour chart, early-week price action was sluggish, with Bitcoin trending sideways below both the 50 EMA and 200 EMA. Selling pressure persisted through midweek, but by Friday, a notable shift in momentum emerged as BTC broke back above the 50 EMA with expanding volume. This move pushed price into the $111K zone, where it encountered resistance around the 200 EMA.
The surge in buying volume on the 18th suggested that short-term traders began accumulating after last week’s liquidation flush. If BTC can hold above $110K and consolidate just under the 200 EMA, it could set the stage for a broader recovery. However, failure to maintain above $109K may reopen downside risk toward the $106K support region.
Daily Analysis
The daily chart shows Bitcoin recovering from oversold conditions after a deep correction. A strong bullish candle on October 18th confirmed renewed buyer interest, supported by a rebound from the 200 EMA — a level that has repeatedly served as a dynamic support in prior down cycles.
Still, the broader structure remains corrective. BTC is struggling to establish higher highs, and momentum indicators hint at waning strength near resistance. The recovery looks more like a technical bounce than the beginning of a sustained rally — at least for now.
A decisive close above $112K–$113K would be required to flip daily structure bullish again, while a break below $108K could invalidate this recovery setup entirely.
Summary & Upcoming Events
Looking ahead, the upcoming week features several high-impact economic events that could inject volatility back into global markets. According to the CryptoCraft calendar, traders should closely monitor red-labeled events, as they carry the greatest potential to influence Bitcoin’s price action:
Tuesday, Oct 21 – CA CPI m/m & y/y: Canadian inflation data will provide insight into global price pressures, which could ripple into broader market sentiment.
Friday, Oct 24 – US Core CPI, CPI y/y, and Flash Manufacturing PMI: This is the most critical set of releases for the week. Hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation or weak manufacturing figures could strengthen the dollar and weigh on risk assets, including BTC.
Friday, Oct 24 – US Flash Services PMI & Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment: These will further shape expectations for the Fed’s policy tone heading into November.
While BTC has managed to stabilize, traders should remain cautious heading into these macro catalysts. The recent rebound could face pressure if inflation surprises to the upside, reinforcing the narrative of “higher for longer” rates. Conversely, a softer CPI print could trigger renewed bullish momentum across the crypto sector.
Credit: Crypto Craft
