Weekly Trading Analysis: A Detailed Breakdown of Market MomentumBTC 20th October – 26th October 2025
Bitcoin extended its recovery this week, building on last week’s rebound from the post-tariff slump. After consolidating above the $110K mark, BTC showed renewed strength, with buyers steadily driving price action higher throughout the week. Market sentiment improved as traders positioned ahead of major macroeconomic events scheduled for the final days of October.
While uncertainty still lingers around inflation and interest rates, the tone across crypto markets shifted slightly bullish. Bitcoin closed the week around $115K, marking its second consecutive week of gains — a positive sign of stabilization after the turbulence seen earlier this month.
Hourly Analysis
On the 1-hour timeframe, Bitcoin maintained a strong upward trajectory, forming a series of higher highs and higher lows through midweek. Price reclaimed both the 50 EMA and 200 EMA, signaling short-term bullish momentum.
The key turning point came on October 24th, where price action broke through the $113K resistance with a clean expansion candle, supported by rising volume. Momentum carried BTC as high as $115K before facing some late-week profit-taking.
Volume patterns showed healthy participation during the advance, and even as price began to cool off, dips were quickly absorbed. Immediate support now sits around $113K–$113.5K, which previously acted as resistance. A sustained hold above this zone could allow bulls to push toward $117K in the coming sessions.
Daily Analysis
The daily chart reveals a constructive reversal pattern after weeks of corrective structure. BTC successfully defended the 200 EMA on the downside and has since printed multiple bullish candles, each with increasing body size — indicating strong buyer control.
The move back above the 50 EMA is notable, as this level has historically served as a short-term trend filter. If BTC maintains daily closes above it, the market could be transitioning from recovery into early trend formation.
Volume has steadily increased throughout the week, reflecting renewed conviction among traders. However, it’s worth noting that the overall structure remains within a larger consolidation phase between $107K and $118K — meaning a breakout above this range will be key to confirming a broader bullish trend shift.
Summary & Upcoming Events
Next week’s macro calendar is stacked with high-impact (red) events, each with the potential to trigger volatility across global risk markets — including crypto. Here are the key data points to watch:
Wednesday, Oct 29 – AU CPI q/q & y/y: Australia’s inflation print will give early indications of regional price trends.
Thursday, Oct 30 – US Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement, and Press Conference: The most significant risk event of the week. Any hawkish tone from the Fed could pressure BTC and equities, while dovish remarks may extend the current risk rally.
Friday, Oct 31 – US Core PCE Price Index m/m: The Fed’s preferred inflation measure. A softer reading could boost sentiment, while upside surprises would reinforce rate-hike expectations.
Bitcoin’s reaction to these events will define the near-term direction. A dovish FOMC and cooling inflation could propel BTC beyond $117K, potentially re-entering the $120K range. However, stronger inflation data or hawkish Fed rhetoric could trigger a retracement back toward $112K.
For now, BTC remains in a healthy technical position — building a base of support after several volatile weeks — but macro catalysts will be the final driver of whether this recovery turns into a true breakout.
Credit: Crypto Craft
