Weekly Trading Analysis: A Detailed Breakdown of Market MomentumBTC 28th April - 4th May 2025
Bitcoin’s price action over the past week (28th April to 4th May 2025) has delivered a textbook example of market expansion followed by distribution. After sweeping liquidity and breaking prior structure, BTC met heavy resistance at higher supply zones, leading to a sharp shift in sentiment. As we head into a critical week with macro events like the FOMC meeting, momentum is showing signs of weakness, and key technical levels are coming into play.
This detailed breakdown will map out the key moves, zones of interest, and setups I’m watching for the days ahead.
Hourly Overview
Price action during this period showcased both expansion and distribution within a defined structure.
April 28th–29th: Price started range-bound but formed multiple 1hr FVGs as liquidity got swept. Volatility spiked late on the 29th as price tapped into a higher liquidity pool before sharply reversing.
April 30th – May 1st: A clear BOS (Break of Structure) occurred as price impulsively pushed higher, sweeping prior highs and breaking above the previous bearish FVG. Volume confirmed this breakout, spiking notably. Price peaked near $96k but faced strong rejection off the $95.5k–$96k daily supply zone, which aligns with historical resistance.
May 2nd – 3rd: Price shifted into distribution, with multiple failed attempts to hold the upper $97k range. Note how price hugged the 50 EMA but failed to sustain above it, printing clear lower highs — signaling a sentiment shift to bearish.
May 4th (Sunday): A sharp selloff broke through short-term support, slicing below the 50 EMA and forming a fresh 1hr FVG. Volume spiked during the selloff, showing real intent behind the move. Price found temporary support at the 200 EMA around $93.5k, where a small bounce is underway. However, resistance remains at the 50 EMA and the recent FVG zone near $95.2k.
Key Observations:
FVG Rejections: Price has consistently respected 1hr FVGs as both entry and rejection zones.
EMA Dynamics: Bearish pressure confirmed as price struggles below the 50 EMA, only finding temporary bounces at the 200 EMA.
Supply Zone Rejection: The $95.5k–$96k zone remains a dominant rejection area, repeatedly capping bullish attempts.
Volume Spike: The Sunday selloff was backed by real volume, hinting at further downside unless price can reclaim above both the 50 EMA and $95.2k FVG zone.
Daily Chart Insight
Momentum is showing early signs of weakness: volume is trending below the 20 MA while price has slightly increased — this could be a developing bearish divergence.
While BTC broke above the key structure point at $94.5k, failure to hold above this level on retest hints at a potential pullback. A retracement toward the $91k range seems likely — this zone aligns with:
A daily FVG
A key area of interest
A potential mean reversion back to the 50 EMA
The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level
What to Watch 👀
Long setups: Consider entries within the $91k–$93k price range.
Short plays: Triggered on breakdowns below the daily 50 EMA, ideally with a retest confirmation.
Volatility alert: FOMC meeting scheduled for Wednesday — expect increased volatility during and around this event.
