Weekly Trading Analysis: A Detailed Breakdown of Market MomentumBTC 5th May - 11 th May 2025
Hourly Analysis
Bitcoin continues its bullish momentum as the hourly chart reveals a powerful expansion phase that began on the 5th of May. After a period of compression and accumulation, BTC launched from sub-100k levels and is now trading above 104k, having tagged a local high near 105k.
On the lower timeframe, price has been respecting structure cleanly:
Each bullish leg has left behind 1-hour Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) — particularly in the 98k–102k region — which remain unmitigated and could serve as retracement targets.
The 50 EMA on the 1-hour timeframe has acted as dynamic support during each pullback since the breakout began.
However, there are early signs of exhaustion as price printed upper wicks during recent pushes above 104,500, suggesting supply absorption is underway.
Volume on the 1-hour has also shown a noticeable fade during attempts to break above 105k, indicating that momentum buyers are starting to hesitate at these elevated levels. A sweep below 103,000 could quickly drive price back into lower FVGs for a deeper retest.
Daily Analysis
The daily timeframe paints the broader bullish narrative but also flags emerging risks.
BTC has officially broken through its range, lifting above the psychological 100k barrier and pressing into the 104k–105k resistance block, a zone where previous distribution occurred in late March and early April. The structure is bullish:
Price is printing higher highs and higher lows, maintaining strength above the daily 50 EMA.
The breakout candles between the 5th and 7th of May carried strong body closes with minimal wicks, confirming bullish commitment.
However, as BTC now pushes into stacked supply zones, upper wicks have appeared on recent candles, signaling hesitation and the presence of sell pressure.
The daily chart also shows several unfilled FVGs below current price:
98k–102k zones remain vulnerable if buyers fail to sustain pressure.
Volume peaked during the initial breakout but has started to decline, another early sign of potential distribution.
Week Ahead
The coming week is likely to be pivotal for Bitcoin's next major move. Key macro events are lining up as potential volatility catalysts:
US CPI Data: A hot print would likely trigger a sharp BTC pullback, while cooler numbers could fuel further upside.
ETF Flow Watch: Ongoing inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, particularly BlackRock's IBIT, have been a core driver of the current rally. Any slowdown here could dampen bullish momentum.
Technical levels to monitor:
Resistance: 104,500–105,500 (current ceiling)
Support: 102,000–103,000 (breakout base), 98,000–100,000 (major demand + FVG magnet)
Bullish target if breakout continues: 106,800–108,000 (next daily supply zone)
Summary
Bitcoin has delivered a strong breakout this past week, driven by ETF inflows and growing expectations of Fed easing. On both the hourly and daily timeframes, the structure remains bullish — but warning signs are starting to surface. Volume is fading, upper wicks show rejection, and multiple unfilled FVGs below suggest vulnerability to a pullback.
If bulls can sustain pressure and flip 105k into support, BTC may make a run toward the 106k–108k range. However, failure to hold above 102k would shift momentum back toward 98k, targeting those hourly and daily FVGs.
With the CPI data on deck, traders should prepare for elevated volatility and stay agile. The next move will likely be fast and decisive — either continuation higher or a sharp sweep lower to refill the gaps below.
