Weekly Trading Analysis: A Detailed Breakdown of Market MomentumBTC 3rd November – 9th November 2025
After last week’s heavy selloff, Bitcoin began this week on the defensive, dipping below the $102K mark before staging a notable rebound. The market stabilized as traders digested recent U.S. macro data and positioned ahead of key inflation releases due next week.
Despite the recovery, overall sentiment remains cautious. Bitcoin reclaimed the $106K handle by week’s end, printing its first meaningful higher low since mid-October. While this bounce reflects short-term relief, structural resistance looms overhead, leaving traders uncertain whether this is a genuine trend reversal or simply a corrective retrace within a broader downtrend.
Hourly Analysis
The 1-hour chart paints a clear picture of a market attempting to recover lost ground. Early in the week, BTC remained trapped under the 50 EMA and 200 EMA, consolidating within a narrow range between $102K and $104K. Midweek momentum shifted as buyers stepped in, driving price through both EMAs with convincing volume on November 7th.
This breakout led to a strong upward push toward $106K, with volume spikes suggesting renewed participation from sidelined traders. By the end of the week, BTC was consolidating just above the 200 EMA — a level that had previously acted as dynamic resistance.
Short-term bias leans cautiously bullish as long as BTC holds above $104.5K. However, failure to sustain above the 200 EMA could result in another fade toward the lower $103K range, particularly if upcoming macro data disappoints.
Daily Analysis
On the daily timeframe, BTC showed its first constructive structure in weeks. After bouncing from support near $101K, the daily candles displayed progressively higher lows, suggesting that sellers may be losing momentum.
Volume analysis also supports this shift — selling volume declined steadily as buying volume increased across the last few sessions. However, BTC remains below both the 50 EMA and 200 EMA, meaning the broader trend is still technically bearish. The $107K–$108K region is now the key test — reclaiming and closing above this area could signal a short-term trend reversal.
If bulls fail to reclaim that resistance, the market could resume its drift lower, with $102K–$100K remaining a vital demand zone to defend.
Summary & Upcoming Events
Next week’s macro calendar, as shown in the CryptoCraft schedule, is loaded with red-tier events that are likely to shape market sentiment and volatility across both traditional and crypto markets. The key events to watch include:
Friday, Nov 14 – US Core CPI m/m & CPI y/y: The most critical releases of the week. If inflation remains sticky, risk assets like Bitcoin could face renewed pressure as traders price in higher-for-longer interest rates. Conversely, a softer print could give BTC room to rally above resistance levels.
Friday, Nov 14 – US Unemployment Claims: Labor market resilience will provide clues on whether economic cooling is consistent with inflation moderation.
Saturday, Nov 15 – US Core PPI m/m & Retail Sales m/m: These will further refine inflation expectations heading into year-end and can add intraday volatility during weekend trading sessions.
Bitcoin’s rebound this week was a welcome sign for bulls, but with heavy macro data ahead, traders should brace for potential volatility. If inflation data surprises to the upside, BTC could retest $102K quickly. However, a dovish surprise might propel BTC toward $108K–$110K, potentially marking the first higher high since the early October correction.
Credit: Crypto Craft
