Weekly Trading Analysis: A Detailed Breakdown of Market MomentumBTC 27th October – 2nd November 2025
After a promising two-week rebound, Bitcoin reversed sharply this week, dropping from the $115K region to lows near $107K as sellers regained control. The move marked a clear loss of short-term bullish momentum following a string of weak macro data and a cautious tone ahead of major U.S. economic releases.
The volatility underscored ongoing market uncertainty — a mix of macro pressure, fading risk appetite, and technical weakness. BTC now sits precariously above the $106K–$107K zone, which has acted as support in recent months. A breakdown below this range could open the door to deeper retracement levels not seen since early Q3.
Hourly Analysis
On the 1-hour chart, BTC spent the first half of the week consolidating around the $112K–$114K range, repeatedly testing the 200 EMA before breaking decisively lower on October 31st. A clear bearish crossover between the 50 EMA and 200 EMA (a “death cross”) formed midweek, confirming a momentum shift.
Volume increased significantly on the selloff, signaling strong participation as price cascaded downward into the weekend. Short-term attempts to reclaim the 50 EMA were quickly rejected, showing that sellers remain firmly in control.
Heading into next week, the key level to watch intraday is $108K, acting as immediate support. Resistance lies around $110.5K, where the 200 EMA now sits overhead. Bulls need to reclaim that zone to neutralize current short-term pressure.
Daily Analysis
The daily structure continues to weaken. After several attempts to reclaim the 50 EMA failed, BTC broke back below it and has once again found itself hovering near the 200 EMA, which now serves as the final layer of defense before the next structural low.
Candlestick formations over the week displayed consistent lower highs, confirming a broader downtrend continuation. The increasing selling volume adds weight to the bearish sentiment. Unless BTC can print a strong reversal candle with expanding volume, the path of least resistance remains downward in the short term.
However, it’s worth noting that the longer-term trend remains neutral-to-bullish — this correction appears to be a reaction to macro uncertainty rather than a structural breakdown. Traders will be watching whether buyers defend the 200 EMA on the daily chart for signs of accumulation.
Summary & Upcoming Events
Next week’s economic calendar is dense with high-impact red events, each carrying potential volatility triggers across global markets — especially for risk assets like Bitcoin. Here’s what to watch:
Tuesday, Nov 4 – US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Weak manufacturing data could hint at cooling economic activity, adding pressure to equities and crypto.
Thursday, Nov 6 – UK BOE Monetary Policy Report & Official Bank Rate Decision: With UK inflation still elevated, any hawkish tone from the Bank of England could strengthen the USD and weigh on BTC.
Friday, Nov 7 – US Non-Farm Employment Change & Unemployment Rate: The centerpiece of the week. Strong jobs data could reinforce the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance, pushing yields higher and risk assets lower.
Friday, Nov 7 – US Core PCE Price Index: The Fed’s preferred inflation measure. A hotter print could dampen the likelihood of near-term easing, limiting upside for BTC.
With the Fed and employment data on deck, volatility is all but guaranteed. The coming week may determine whether BTC can defend its long-term support near $106K or if broader macro weakness drags the asset further into correction territory.
Credit: Crypto Craft
